Governing systemic and cascading disaster risk in Indonesia: where do we stand and future outlook

Purpose This paper aims to identify key factors for a contextualised Systemic Risk Governance (SRG) framework and subsequently explore how systemic risks can be managed and how local institutional mechanisms can be tweaked to deal with the complex Indonesian risk landscape. Design/methodology/approach Using a case study from Palu triple-disasters in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, the authors demonstrate how inland earthquakes in 2018 created cascading secondary hazards, namely tsunamis, liquefactions and landslides, caused unprecedented disasters for the communities and the nation. A qualitative analysis was conducted using the data collected through a long-term observation since 2002. Findings The authors argue that Indonesia has yet to incorporate an SRG approach in its responses to the Palu triple-disasters. Political will is required to adopt more appropriate risk governance modes that promote the systemic risk paradigm. Change needs to occur incrementally through hybrid governance arrangements ranging from formal/informal methods to self- and horizontal and vertical modes of governance deemed more realistic and feasible. The authors recommend that this be done by focusing on productive transition and local transformation. Originality/value There is growing awareness and recognition of the importance of systemic and cascading risks in disaster risk studies. However, there are still gaps between research, policy and practice. The current progress of disaster risk governance is not sufficient to achieve the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030) unless there is an effective governing system in place at the local level that allow actors and institutions to simultaneously manage the interplays of multi-hazards, multi-temporal, multi-dimensions of vulnerabilities and residual risks. This paper contributes to these knowledge gaps

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Reliability of Build Back Better at enhancing resilience of communities

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyse the reliability of Build Back Better slogan in the context of post-disaster housing reconstruction in developing countries, at enhancing disaster-resilience of housing and its occupants in the long term from socio-ecological systems resilience perspective. Design/methodology/approach A predominantly qualitative methodology and multi-disciplinary case study methodology is adopted to compare long-term outcomes of two post-disaster housing reconstruction interventions: post-2008 Bihar Kosi River floods in India and post-2010 Mentawai earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia. Findings Out of the nine generalizable findings, two of the most significant findings include giving freedom of choice or human capabilities to the disaster survivors and sustaining capacity development during and beyond the completion of housing reconstruction. These two processes play a significant role in linking reconstruction to resilience in the long term, especially of those living at- risk and poverty. Originality/value This paper further advances the current scholarship on overarching long-term impacts of housing reconstruction efforts, based on longitudinal and empirical studies in India and Indonesia. While these findings represent a snapshot of diverse and complex disaster experiences in the developing-world context, the comparison offers insight into how to turn the rhetoric surrounding "owner-driven" or "built back better" into long-term resilience outcomes

A review of pre-disaster public awareness activities on public readiness: The 2010 Mentawai tsunami

A qualitative study on impact of pre-disaster public awareness activities on public readiness was conducted in the North and South Pagai Islands after the 25 October 2010 Mentawai earthquake. Parameters of readiness are public response to tsunami and the number of casualties. The results show that public awareness activities that commenced from 2004 have effectively increased people's awareness of tsunamis as indicated by their knowledge of tsunami signals. Yet apart from failure of the official warning system to alert the public in remote areas, the response of people to the natural tsunami signals has been made on the basis of misperceptions of strong earthquake signals and tsunami lead-time. Tsunami lead-time of the Pagai Islands had been perceived as long as that of Sumatra or Java Islands and strong earthquakes have been perceived as merely strong ground shaking. These misperceptions came from invalid materials of public education and invalid translation of scientific information, and were confirmed by people's experiences in the 12 September 2007 Bengkulu earthquake. Hence, despite mitigation by relocating houses to the high ground that has saved many lives in Malakopa and Asahan, there is no evidence on the positive relation of pre-disaster awareness intervention with the reduction in loss of lives in the study sites. In order to not give invalid information on tsunami awareness in the future, instead of using a generic formula of regional tsunamis, public education on tsunami should use a specific formula based on local characteristics. Moreover, sensing earthquakes that may trigger tsunamis through the duration of ground shaking may be more effective than that of the strength of ground shaking. Because sensing time duration is difficult, particularly for communities that are not used to using modern timers, it is necessary to develop simple means of sensing time duration

Governance strategies in Indonesia for addressing systemic risks: Where do we stand and the future outlook

This contributing paper examines the need to create new governing systems at the local level that allow actors and institutions to simultaneously manage the interplays of single and multi-hazards, multi-temporal, multiple dimensions of vulnerabilities, poverty reduction, unplanned urbanisation, environmental degradation and other residual risks. The unprecedented pandemic COVID-19 has revealed the inability to understand the root causes of risk, and thus it stressed the need to understand how to manage systemic risks at local levels. The study uses the case of from Palu multiple disasters in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, to demonstrate how inland earthquakes in 2018 create cascading secondary hazards, namely tsunamis, liquefactions and landslides that caused unprecedented disasters. The study finds that Indonesia has yet to incorporate a systemic risk governance approach through the case of Palu. Political will is required for Indonesia to adopt more appropriate risk governance modes that promote the systemic risk paradigm. A fit for purpose framework contextualised and adjusted to country conditions is needed for further exploration and operationalisation in the policy domain. The study adds that the focus of systemic risk governance should be directed towards productive transition and local transformation although incremental change through hybrid governance arrangement, among other things, is deemed more realistic and feasible for Indonesia

Review of Socio-Economic Development Pathway Scenarios for Climate Change Adaptation in Indonesia: Disaster Risk Reduction Perspective

The work of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on a Special Report on Emission Scenarios has pioneered the methods for greenhouse gas emission scenario associated with socio-economic development pathways in the coming century, followed by other models such as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in climate change and disaster risk. This scenario is useful to understand how human society develops the future assessment of climate change and to provide possible mitigation and response strategies. This chapter is aimed to review the current status of socio-economic scenario on climate change and disaster and risk reduction effort in scholarly literatures and to identify gaps and opportunities for future research and decision-making based on the reflection of existing Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) theories and emblematic case studies. We have conducted a semi-structured literature review and content analysis. The result of our analysis revealed that there is still a dearth of study on the application of different models of socio-economic forecasting scenarios to understand how would each pathway affect the vulnerability of certain type of disaster and its potential as a decision-making tool in Indonesia. However, there are opportunities to expand the methods and define socio-economic variables that go beyond the economic indicators (i.e. GDP), such as of welfare, health, education, social capital human development, participation and technology. Challenges are also identified, including the limitation of methodology, availability of data, lack of synergy between CCA and DRR, lack of interdisciplinarity, space for science–policy interface and political support. Future research on SSPs should pay attention to the aspect of multi-hazard approaches to climate change impact, emerging technology and its adverse impacts. We argued that projection is a highly important tool; however, largely reliable at the global scale rather than regional or national scale. To understand that climate variability and change is high, it is important to raise self-awareness on adaptation to future disasters

Review of Socio-Economic Development Pathway Scenarios for Climate Change Adaptation in Indonesia: Disaster Risk Reduction Perspective

The work of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on a Special Report on Emission Scenarios has pioneered the methods for greenhouse gas emission scenario associated with socio-economic development pathways in the coming century, followed by other models such as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in climate change and disaster risk. This scenario is useful to understand how human society develops the future assessment of climate change and to provide possible mitigation and response strategies. This chapter is aimed to review the current status of socio-economic scenario on climate change and disaster and risk reduction effort in scholarly literatures and to identify gaps and opportunities for future research and decision-making based on the reflection of existing Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) theories and emblematic case studies. We have conducted a semi-structured literature review and content analysis. The result of our analysis revealed that there is still a dearth of study on the application of different models of socio-economic forecasting scenarios to understand how would each pathway affect the vulnerability of certain type of disaster and its potential as a decision-making tool in Indonesia. However, there are opportunities to expand the methods and define socio-economic variables that go beyond the economic indicators (i.e. GDP), such as of welfare, health, education, social capital human development, participation and technology. Challenges are also identified, including the limitation of methodology, availability of data, lack of synergy between CCA and DRR, lack of interdisciplinarity, space for science–policy interface and political support. Future research on SSPs should pay attention to the aspect of multi-hazard approaches to climate change impact, emerging technology and its adverse impacts. We argued that projection is a highly important tool; however, largely reliable at the global scale rather than regional or national scale. To understand that climate variability and change is high, it is important to raise self-awareness on adaptation to future disasters

Review and analysis of current responses to COVID-19 in Indonesia: Period of January to March 2020

The world is presently under an emergency situation because of the COVID-19 global pandemic, caused by a novel coronavirus. Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world and is predicted to be affected significantly over a longer time period. Our paper aims to provide detailed reporting and analyses of the present rapid responses to COVID-19 in Indonesia. We particularly highlight the progress of governments, key organisations and community responses to COVID-19 between January and March 2020. We outline the gaps and limitations in the responses, based on our rapid analysis of media contents, from government speeches and reports, social and mass media platforms. We present our recommendations toward more rapid effective, and comprehensive responses

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures